支持向量机(SVM)及其在场预测中的应用   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

张礼平  陈永义  周筱兰 《热带气象学报》2006,22(3):278-282

介绍一种新的非线性回归分析方法--SVM回归.利用EOF能分解数据场和SVM回归分析可建立因子与预报量非线性关系的优势,设计预报方案：（1） 将因子场和预报场分别用方差标准化、EOF场展开,提取两场时间系数;（2） 用SVM回归分析实现因子场时间系数对预报场时间系数非线性预测;（3） 由预测的预报场时间系数与对应空间函数反演原场.用交叉检验的方法,对1960～2003年1月热带海表温度场预报汛期（6～8月）华中区域降水场进行试验.SVM回归44年独立预报平均技巧评分10.4%,较随机预报具有明显的技巧水平,优于经典回归.  相似文献   

Multicollinearity in cross-sectional regressions     

Jørgen Lauridsen  Jesùs Mur 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2006,8(4):317-333

The paper examines robustness of results from cross-sectional regression paying attention to the impact of multicollinearity. It is well known that the reliability of estimators (least-squares or maximum-likelihood) gets worse as the linear relationships between the regressors become more acute. We resolve the discussion in a spatial context, looking closely into the behaviour shown, under several unfavourable conditions, by the most outstanding misspecification tests when collinear variables are added to the regression. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed. The conclusions point to the fact that these statistics react in different ways to the problems posed.  相似文献   

退耕还林政策实施的农户水土保持行为响应研究--以江西省丰城市梅林镇为例     

翟文侠  黄贤金 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(2):33-39

农户水土保持行为与生态环境变化关系密切，分析农户水土保持行为响应机理对退耕还林政策的实施具有重要意义。通过对江西省丰城市梅林镇多元回归模型分析，结果表明：（1）农户水土保持行为与退耕还林实施力度、退耕地收入与退耕还林后补偿比重成正相关，与退耕补偿年限成负相关；（2）农户水土保持投入减少反映农户家庭收入结构发生变化：从农业为主的收入阶段向以非农业或农业与非农业收入为主的阶段转变；（3）退耕还林政策实施农户水土保持行为响应以效益引导型为主。据此，提出相关建议。  相似文献   

干旱、半干旱区陆气相互作用的研究进展   总被引：5，自引：10，他引：5  

鲍艳  吕世华 《中国沙漠》2006,26(3):454-460

 对干旱、半干旱地区陆气相互作用的研究进展及发展现状做了总结，并结合近年来在干旱、半干旱地区开展的近10个有关陆气相互作用的大型野外观测试验和具有代表性的土壤水热参数化方案，分析了当前干旱区陆面过程研究中存在的问题，最后探讨了干旱区陆面过程未来的发展趋势。  相似文献   

Statistical Procedures for Estimating and Detecting Climate Changes     

S. S. P. SHEN 《大气科学进展》2006,23(1):61-68

  相似文献   

Study on strength reduction factors considering the effect of classification of design earthquake   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

翟长海  谢礼立 《地震学报(英文版)》2006,19(3):299-310

Introduction The strength reduction factor is defined as the lateral yielding strength required to avoid yielding in the system when subjected to a given ground motion, to the lateral yielding strength required to maintain the displacement ductility ratio demand equal to a pre-determined target duc-tility ratio under the same ground motion. The strength reduction factors are not only the key fac-tors in determining seismic action for force-based seismic design, but also one of the key parame-t…  相似文献   

Modern chemometric data analysis – methods for the objective evaluation of load in river systems     

Corinna Kowalik  Jürgen W. Einax 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2006,34(5):425-436

Environmental data are highly variable. They also include uncertainties resulting from all steps of the analytical process e. g. sampling, or sampling pre‐treatment. However, a lot of information is unfortunately often lost because only univariate statistical methods are used for data evaluation and interpretation. This neglects correlation between different pollutants and relationships among various sampling points. It is therefore necessary to apply additional methods of analysis that can accommodate such relationships. This ability is provided by the established, and by the more modern, multivariate statistical methods because they can analyze complex sets of multidimensional data. These methods are used to visualize large amounts of data and to extract latent information (e. g. differently polluted areas, dischargers, or interactions between different environmental compartments). The goal of this paper is to present the use of established statistical techniques, like cluster or factor analysis, and the progress made in basic modern techniques (e. g. cluster imaging, multiway‐partial least squares regression, projection pursuit, or information theory) and to demonstrate each with examples and illustrations.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area, Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

Saro Lee  Touch Sambath 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(6):847-855

This study applied, tested and compared a probability model, a frequency ratio and statistical model, a logistic regression to Damre Romel area, Cambodia, using a geographic information system. For landslide susceptibility mapping, landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and a spatial database was constructed from topographic maps, geology and land cover. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from lineament were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite imagery. The relationship between the factors and the landslides was calculated using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. The relationships, frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid to make landslide susceptibility map. Then the landslide susceptibility map was compared with known landslide locations and tested. As the result, the frequency ratio model (86.97%) and the logistic regression (86.37%) had high and similar prediction accuracy. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.  相似文献   

Application of logistic regression for landslide susceptibility zoning of Cekmece Area, Istanbul, Turkey   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

T. Y. Duman  T. Can  C. Gokceoglu  H. A. Nefeslioglu  H. Sonmez 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(2):241-256

As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.  相似文献   

Areal versus linear evaluation of relationship between drainage basin lithology and geochemistry of stream and overbank sediments in low-order mountainous drainage basins     

Zoran Peh  Slobodan Miko  Marta Mileusnic 《Environmental Geology》2006,49(8):1102-1115

The comparison of two multiple regression models is based on the assumption that geochemical composition of the drainage basin alluvial sediments is derived primarily from the underlying bedrock lithology. The parent material is integrated with both stream sediment and overbank sediment geochemistry via the two essentially different approaches as regards the drainage basin geomorphological data: (1) as the relative area of influence representing a portion of the catchment basin occupied by a specific rock type and (2) as the relative “line” of influence representing a narrow zone of the underlying bedrock traversed by the perennial streams which form the active stream network. The model comparison is established on the goodness-of-fit test for both experimental designs and for the same set of data. Both experiments converge on the linear approach as the more appropriate model in evaluating the lithologic influence on the analysed sample media in small mountainous watersheds.  相似文献